In a delicate balance of diplomacy and military strategy, the American-led initiative to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Hezbollah seems increasingly precarious. As the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza approaches its ninth month, the conflict's tentacles are reaching the Israel-Lebanon border, where hostilities between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah are intensifying.
Escalation on Both Sides
Israel has ramped up its targeted killings of senior Hezbollah commanders, prompting Hezbollah to retaliate with missile strikes reaching progressively further into Israeli territory. The war of words is equally fierce, with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warning last week that “Israel should be afraid,” and Israeli Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant cautioning of a conflict on a “different scale.”
Both parties recognize the devastating potential of a full-scale war but seem locked in an intractable path toward one. Since the Hamas attack on October 7 and the subsequent mobilization of Iran's regional proxies, Washington has been laser-focused on preventing a wider conflict. Despite significant diplomatic efforts, the Biden administration’s attempts to separate Israeli and Hezbollah forces are faltering, and the clock is ticking to prevent a broader conflagration.
Diplomatic Moves and Military Realities
The US envoy, Amos Hochstein, has proposed a revival and modification of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. This resolution aimed to keep Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River and away from the Israeli border. However, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has struggled to enforce these restrictions, allowing Hezbollah to re-establish a strong presence in the area.
Hochstein’s plan includes relocating Hezbollah forces approximately 7 kilometers north of the border, deploying Lebanese Armed Forces in their place, and augmenting UNIFIL’s capabilities with additional international observers. In return, Israel would cease its overflights of Lebanon and engage in discussions on disputed border areas, potentially ceding the contested town of Ghadjar to Lebanon.
This arrangement could allow northern Israeli residents, evacuated due to threats from Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces, to return home. While this would provide Israel with a temporary respite, it also offers Hezbollah a propaganda victory, portraying the outcome as a second "divine victory."
"The international community must hold Hezbollah accountable for its terrorist activities and support efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region." - Boris Johnson
Challenges and Prospects
Despite its potential benefits, Hochstein’s initiative is struggling to gain traction. Hezbollah continues its resistance campaign, seeing no reason to halt its actions absent a formal ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Meanwhile, the Israeli government faces domestic pressure to secure its northern border before the new school year begins in September.
As Israel escalates its operations in Lebanon and Hezbollah intensifies its attacks, the risk of a mass casualty incident looms large, potentially triggering a full-scale war. Israel’s military understands the severe implications of such a conflict, which could rival or exceed the toll of previous wars in terms of casualties and infrastructure damage.
US diplomacy might still pull off a temporary reprieve, akin to the understanding reached by then-Secretary of State Warren Christopher in 1996. However, any such agreement would likely be short-lived, given the ongoing regional tensions and the direct threats Israel faces from Iran and its proxies.
Conclusion
While efforts to prevent an all-out war continue, the likelihood of a major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is growing. The end of the war in Gaza will not diminish Hezbollah’s threat, and a significant military confrontation seems increasingly inevitable. As time runs out for a diplomatic solution, the region braces for what could be one of its most devastating wars yet.
Commentaires